The Fake Games Begin

The fake games begin...and the Giants defeat the Angels 4-1. The Dodgers fall to the White Sox, 9-0. Before we get caught up quibbling about the fake games narratives, a reminder of their ultimate significance:

Getting the Band Back Together

Saturday was the first full team workout. That means it's probably time to start getting my thoughts together about the 2013 Giants. The most obvious aspect of the the 2013 team is that it looks remarkably similar to the 2012 team that won the World Series. 

There's a part of me that says: isn't that what the front office did for the 2011 team? However, I think that the 2012 team had much stronger players than the 2010 team. There's an easy way to encapsulate the difference: the continuity of 2012-2013 is based on a core set of players who've come up through the Giants' system, who I'd like to think have not hit their ceiling. It's still possible, for instance--and this isn't just spring training talking--that Brandon Crawford could improve on his .248/.304/.349 slash line. Admittedly, he struggled during the first half, but showed a marked improvement during the second. I'd take either his August (.281/.329/.359) or September (.288/.351/.409) for 2013--although there's no way that September .380 BABIP is sustainable; August's .327 is a more modest request. To put the numbers in perspective, his season BABIP was .307, while ZiPS projects a .230/.292/.340 slash line for 2013, which I think is too low given that Bruce Bochy seemed to be fairly careful with platooning Crawford to get the best performance out of him. (See also Hank Schulman's piece on this subject here).

And Brandon Belt has room to improve as well. Eno Sarris at Fangraphs has an interesting piece on Belt's turning point, about learning to love the line drives, during 2012 if you're interested. And you should be.

By contrast, the strategy for 2011 seemed to be: 'We just need to catch a few career years as the veterans role downhill, just like last year.' Aaron Rowand. Aubrey "Infield Fly" Huff. Miguel Tejada. Orlando Cabrera. Okay. That's enough of 2011.

Well, not exactly. The Giants, to get the band back together, have also brought back two important pieces of 2010, who were traded after the 2011 season to the Mets for Angel Pagan: Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. You probably don't want to look at their 2012 numbers. The odds are that Ramirez, who is a non-roster invitee, will be competing for the longman role in the bullpen, which admits of numbers that are closer to his 2012, but it would be nice for him to settle into a season like 2011, with a 2.62 ERA (133 ERA+) and 8.7 K/9. It might help his case that the competition--the likes of Chad Gaudin and Sandy Rosario--aren't exactly inspiring (inspiring yet...?).

And Torres, the fan favorite of 2010...what is there to say? He was a crucial part of the 2010 team, and while he struggled in 2011 he never caught the ire of fans as did Rowand, Huff, or Tejada. As for 2013, he'll be judged on his ability to platoon against lefties to Gregor Blanco's right handed opponents. Over his career, Torres' numbers as a right handed batter are slightly better than him batting left handed, thought the splits are much more drastic in 2012:

Split	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs RHP as LHB	262	226	44	7	5	3	.195	.292	.310	.602	.246
vs LHP as RHB	171	147	42	10	2	0	.286	.382	.381	.763	.362

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/17/2013.

Yes, drastic. But since I'm currently obsessing with BABIP, look at the difference there. While that's not sustainable--his career number is .309--the OBP is impressive enough. Nevertheless, left field could get crowded this season, with Belt, Brett Pill, Blanco, and Torres potentially spending time out there. As we know with Bochy, that's determined by who has the hot bat. Until then, Torres is saying all the right things:

Torres said the Mets tried to bring him back and the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers expressed interest. But throughout the process, he was eyeing only one destination.

“This is home for me,” he said. “San Francisco gave me an opportunity when I was in the minors to make the team, and gave me a job. I won the World Series here. I really appreciated those things."

Speaking of 2010 post-season heroics, Cody Ross will be patrolling the outfield for the Diamondbacks for the next three years. Would we really want to see Torres in Dodger blue?

Was There Any Question?

Buster Posey is the National League MVP in 2012. Did you have any doubts?

I'm pretty sure the Giants won something important at the end of the season. Oh, of course, the World Series!

But that's not supposed to be a factor. It must be his .336/.408/.549 slash line. That looks very good, but Baseball Reference says he's got a league leading OPS+ of 172. I guess the National League baseball writers aren't afraid of fancy numbers.

But we're here for GIFs. Maybe I'm late to the party, but I just discovered this. It includes classics like:

And while I could look at that grand slam off of Mat Latos for hours, we shouldn't forget this gem:

Giants Take Two, Two To Go

Admit it. There's a masochistic side to you that wanted to see the Giants win a handful of elimination games in the World Series.* Sure, that was by turns anguishing and exhilarating, but I'll take the Giants exactly where they are now, heading to Detroit with a two game lead. I promise that if things work out, I won't even lament that they might have just played their last game of the season at home. 

Before we get ahead of ourselves, however, I know two words that should give you pause: Anibal Sanchez. He's been known to mow down the Giants and induce high amounts of spectator stress for doing so, especially at AT&T Park. Fortunately, the Giants have two things going for them: first, Ryan Vogelsong, and second, Sanchez is not invincible outside of AT&T: in Miami on May 24th, he pitched 5 1/3 innings and gave up five runs on seven hits and two walks. If we could cherry-pick a few things from the boxscore, you'll note that Ryan Vogelsong was the starting pitcher, and that Emmanuel Burriss was playing second. I think the Giants found an upgrade at second somewhere along the line, but I just can't recall. Was it Ryan Theriot? And don't look at the part about Javier Lopez. Don't do it!

What I'll need to remember when I look back at this years from now:

GAME 1: 8-3 Giants

First, Barry Zito has become The Junkball Superstar. Bronson Arroyo would write a nice tuneful tribute, but he's still a bit upset at the whole NLDS thing. Sure, we can stare at Zito's Baseball Reference page for hours and try to puzzle it through, considering the 4.15 that in 2010 got him left off the post-season roster, and that in 2012 made him the go-to guy for Game 1 of the World Series. We could even talk about how his ERA+ was 94 in 2010, and 84 in 2012. Is he actually a lesser pitcher this year? Or does it say more about the (temporary?) fall of Tim Lincecum? Or, that Bruce Bochy was prepared to use all the tools of psychological warfare against Justin Verlander? Or, with a more proficient offense this year, Zito's flaws aren't nearly as glaring?

Was the crowd chanting Bar-ry and then Zi-to? Did I really get an email from a friend who actually wrote:

Forget about Panda's feats last night. It was Zito's night. It wasn't necessarily pretty,  but he had a plan that he stuck to. I suspect this will be a long series, but my prediction is Zito will be WS MVP.

For such a bold prediction, I will let you remain anonymous, Mark. Oh, whoops! That's set in stone like the rest of the Internet, so I can't change it now! Never forget, however, that this is Verlander (the first two times) and that's Pablo Sandoval:

I've never heard of those other guys who've hit three home runs in a World Series game, but I'm sure they're good people.**

By the end of this game, I was convinced that Lincecum's post-season calling is to be a super-reliever. He faced seven batters and struck out five. What, would you rather see Guillermo Mota in the middle innings?

GAME 2: 2-0 Giants

Fact: Doug Fister struck the fuck outta the Kansas City Royals and set some kind of record. Fact: Fister struck out only three Giants. For allowing a rare hit to the struggling Hunter Pence, he's the losing pitcher of record, although if baseball recorded assists, I'd say Drew Smyly cemented that one.

Otherwise, we got the Madison Bumgarner that we all remember from earlier in the season: 7IP, 2H, 2W, 8K, 0ER. One of the biggest fears of this post-season was the diminished capacity of the starting rotation, but over the past five games, Giants starters have allowed two earned runs in, hmmm, add the numbers, carry that one to the other one, 33 innings pitched. (Tack on Lincecum in Game 1 and it's 35 1/3). In case you're wondering, that went Zito, Vogelsong, Cain, Zito,  Bumgarner. Looks like everybody's in: next up, Vogelsong and Cain.

No time to look back now, just two more wins to go... 

* Make no mistake, they'll obviously have to win a game that includes eliminating Detroit, but how about not making it a handful?

**That would be Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson, and some guy who just cashed in with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Rooting Against the Tigers Begins Today

What exactly just happened over the month of October? Had you told me in March that the Giants would win the National League pennant after fighting back in six elimination games, and that Barry Zito would be a crucial component of the playoff rotation, I would have thought you were high as hell. And you might have been. But here we are. Barry Zito's starting Game 1 of the World Series against Justin Verlander. 

Though I haven't written anything about the playoffs. I'm sure it has something to do with going back to work at the university, and working on a book and an editing project that have nothing to do with baseball. But it also had to do with how exhausting watching the Giants win six elimination games. Including that time I was attending a conference talk, sweating Sergio Romo's twelve pitches to Jay Bruce. To tell the truth, it wasn't that nerve wracking to watch Ryan Vogelsong. In fact, I could watch those games with some obstinate idea that Vogelsong wouldn't accept not going to the World Series after his now-storied return to the Major Leagues. But, wow, the rest of the rotation has been a far cry from their shut down performances of 2010.

Yet the offense has been able to pick them up, at least until the Cardinals got shut down offensively in games five, six, and seven, when the offense picked up the pitching just on general principle--not to mention that the possibility of the the Cards coming back from a six run deficit would leave a very bitter taste.

Instead, the Giants are going to the World Series, and I've got to start mustering my baseball fury against the Detroit Tigers (even if I chose them for the World Series last year). May they under perform in the next four to seven games. 

Before the fall classic begins, never forget:

For that grand slam, Buster Posey is the official NLDS Exceptional Comrade of The Left Field Line.

The NLCS Excellent Comrades (a shared prize!) are Marco Scutaro and Ryan Vogelsong. In 30 plate appearances, Scutaro hit .500/.533/.607, with fourteen hits, most of those coming after being run over by Matt Holliday. 

Vogelsong destroyed the Cardinals with that fiery death stare. Oh, and he pitched 14 innings and gave up only eight hits, three walks, and two earned runs. If you throw in the hit batter, that's 12 baserunners, compared to 13 strikeouts. 

If he wants to go Satchel Paige and pitch night after night while decimating the opposition, I'd say let him.

The Giants Clinch the NL West...

...and somewhere else, Mat Latos grinds his teeth. Sure, it was Saturday, but he's probably still at it.

But we're not Mat Latos, and lol Dodgers. 

Yup, I just wrote that.

Anything But a Spoiler of Padres

The smile of a man whose rivals are a fluke of Diamondbacks.

Earlier today, thanks to @grumpyowl, I learned that the collective noun for magpies is "tidings," as in: "I saw a tidings of magpies." I responded that a few, lesser-known collective nouns include:

A bar-full of writers.

A murder of philosophers.*

No, seriously, look it up. You'll find support for this somewhere--probably, uh, right here. In any case, somewhere a Padres fan is trying to get "a spoiler of Padres" in The Oxford English Dictionary of Sport.** Yes, the magic number is three, and while the Padres can't prevent the Dodgers from stinking it up against the Reds this weekend, they can turn the next three games--and possibly three more in San Diego--into a mess of bloops, stolen bases and importune line drives. Maybe even a home run or two. Giants losses rather than wins. Sure, they don't have the greatest record, and you probably won't forget that part in April when they dropped six of seven against the Dodgers, but the Padres have an ax to grind. This probably has something to do with 2010, though I'm sure that this spoiler of Padres would also love to clinch a NL West rivalry with a team other than the Diamondbacks or the Rockies.

It's the Giants' job to let that lucky team be the Dodgers***--I mean, the Dodgers have Adrian Gonzalez! He's rightfully the Padres'. Right? No? Whatever? 

But beating the Padres cannot be taken for granted. Since the start of August, they've gone 28-17. Since those first two series against the Dodgers, they've gone 5-2 against LA. The Giants are 8-4 against San Diego, and if you're reading this, you probably share my interest in watching at least three more wins. Chalked up as soon as possible.

Nevertheless, here's a lineup of potentially irritating Padres:

Cabrera SS, Forsythe 2B, Headley 3B, Grandal C, Alonso 1B, Guzman LF, Venable RF, Maybin CF and Kelly RHP

Especially Headley. And probably Alonso. And Carlos Quentin at some point, though each Padre has a touch of potential spoiler within him. I say let him spoil sometime between September 25th and 27th.

As far as pitching goes, while they no longer have Mat Latos--he'll face the Dodgers on Saturday--they have a starting rotation, but not with any of the guys you remember, since they've all been injured. In the bullpen they have Luke Gregerson, and they just activated Huston Street from the DL. Bud Black has commanded them to spoil, because the Padres have six more games against San Francisco, and he knows that Bruce Bochy is three games away from peppering his  lineups with Pennies, Burrii, Pegueros and Pills. That's no way to play a rivalry.

Three.

Footnotes:
* Hegel said that somewhere. I promise.
**This doesn't exist, but if it did, it would be a prescriptivist's nightmare, with adverbial/adjectival jive such as "hitting the ball good" and "thank you very nice."
***It's like adding another wild card. The Giants are the Dodgers' first rivalry (always and forever), and the Padres would be the second.