The Dodgers Preview

Rivalries mean more when teams are competing. That's why, over the past few years, some of us, who might never regularly do so, end up watching a Yankees v. Red Sox series. Or two. Or three. For some time, Giants haven't had that kind of series against the Dodgers. Sure, playing the Dodgers was never going to be easy--but while they managed to fit Clayton Kershaw into each series (or it least it seemed that way), they weren't going to make a run for the National League West. They were just going to make it difficult for some other team--such as the Giants.

This year, it's different. The Dodgers are three games up on the Giants coming into San Francisco for a three game series. You know what that means. 

Of course, it's June, so counting up games-back in the division standings doesn't quite mean what it does in August or September and all those other caveats...I'd keep typing, but I know what you're thinking. Sweep. Nothing like crushing the Dodgers and marching to the top (albeit with a tie) of the division. As we all know, the A's just swept the Dodgers, and the Giants almost swept the A's, so there's got to be some kind of syllogism that guarantees success. 

Except that there isn't. A quick look at the Dodgers' lineup shows that Matt Kemp isn't back yet. That's a good sign for the Giants. So don't look at the probable pitchers, lest--

6/25: Eovaldi (0-3, 2.35 ERA) v. Zito (5-5, 4.35 ERA)

6/26: Kershaw (0-1 against Vogelsong) v. Vogelsong (6-3, 2.41 ERA)

6/27: Billingsley (4-6, 4.15) v. Lincecum (nothing to see here)

So you had to look. The Dodgers rolled the dice and miss Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. Well, think sweep all you want, but if the Giants gain a game out of this series, that's a victory, too.

By the way, you shouldn't miss this GIF (via McCovey Chronicles):

You just have enough time to start collecting your thoughts and then it cuts to the part where the swings are in sync, and...what was I saying?

Oh, of course, during the month of June, Brandon Belt has posted a .340/.463/.642 slash line. This is the kind of GIF that makes you think that there will be more of that, and less of the uneven part of his season.

The Brewers Preview

First, the bad news: Pablo Sandoval is out with a fractured hamate bone (the left one, not the right--which he fractured last year). The Giants are hacking away with runners in scoring position. And the team seems to have inculcated a culture of free swinging, which might sound like fun, but really means that they are swinging at junk outside of the strike zone. Oh, and they were swept by the Marlins. 

We'll get over the Marlins in time, and the might even pretend that the RISP problems are a fluke. But Sandoval is going to be out for four to six weeks--which means there's going to be plenty of time for the blogosphere to second guess Bruce Bochy's choices for the starting lineups. 

I'm just going to do it in advance: play Gregor Blanco and Brandon Belt. We know that Bochy likes Schierholtz, and that he seems to think that Belt is always batting .225. But winning games with Sandoval is going to require not giving up outs, sometimes in ways that aren't as aesthetically pleasing as a three run home run. And Aubrey Huff hit a few of those over the last few years, and that's what will get him back in the line up, and then everybody starts getting shuffled around, and next thing you know...#FreeBelt.

So don't forget that: 

El Tiburon Blanco is currently posting a GIF-worthy lead-off slash-line of .300/.405/.433.

And Brandon Belt has, despite the "hole in his swing," a .292/.370/.396 line. We all know Team Pill is questioning that slugging percentage (since Pill's is .481), but, without psychologizing this too much, Belt's probably hitting for average at the moment, since that seems to be the way that a player gets out of the on-the-bench/off-the-bench roller coaster. Here's Bochy's take, which does psychologize the issue:

“(Batting average) is still a big number and it’s how a lot of hitters evaluate themselves,” Bochy said. “It comes down to scoring runs and knocking in runs, but that is how a lot of hitters get their confidence.”

Finally, the good news: Buster Posey is here, and he's hitting .325/.381/.545. The case of Freddy Sanchez should remind us that a healthy and hard-hitting Posey was not a given going into the season. 

We'll conclude with that promised preview of the Brewers. In the post-Fielder age, they've started the season 11-14. The pitching--Zack Greinke, Randy Wolf, and Shawn Marcum--should be tough for a team that made the Marlins' rotation look like a pack (a school?) of Cy Young award winners. The Giants will need to take advantage of Ryan Braun's day-to-day status, and we should be glad that Mat Gamel (out for the season due to a torn ACL) won't be available to blow up catchers on close plays at the plate. 

In the best case scenario, the Giants will end this series over/at .500, right before taking on the Diamondbacks and knocking a few games off the Dodgers' division lead.

Lincecum Will Not Be Out-Dueled (Tonight)

Let's face it. If you tuned into this game starting with Tim Lincecum's second at bat, you probably had a better evening than those of us who watched the entire game. Sure, Anthony Bass had some sharp stuff and perfect game and all that, but you're not a Padres fan if you're here. I spent those first 5 2/3 innings trying to see how many synonyms I could think of for futile. Like useless, vain, and to no avail. All because I've probably used dismal quite often. Then Lincecum went James McDonald (remember this, because Cain won't forget) on Bass, and broke up all that nonsense.

In the end, I should have spent the time on dismal because the Giants' defense has been bleak.  Two errors tonight for a total of 25. Dreary. Disheartening. More importantly, for a while it looked as if an unearned run could have cost them the game, until Brandon Belt made up for it with a two-run double in the seventh. On the bright side, I suppose, the Padres kept pace so as not to be outdone for the most errors committed in the majors this season, with 26 total.

Let's put that aside for the moment. For tonight, Lincecum continued his return to form. Five strikeouts, but also four walks, 121 pitches. A couple of those walks and a few of those pitches are probably due to Tim Tschida's stingy strike zone. Tschida or not, Lincecum still has some work to do, although he shaved that ERA down to 5.74 (which in April is as meaningless as the Dodger's 15-6 record, but whatever).

And Brandon Belt found one of those elusive hits with runners in scoring position! As a reward for his efforts, he'll probably sit tomorrow out, since the Padres' will be starting Clayton Richard, LHP. Didn't we look at his numbers vs. LHP before? Just a reminder, though small sample size caveats apply (these are career numbers--believe it or not, he only has 4 PA this season vs LHP):

Split	PA	AB	H	BA	OBP	SLG
vs LHP as LHB	55	49	17	.347	.418	.510

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/29/2012.
 

Focus on Sanity

Bruce Bochy summarized it best: "That’s one of those games that saves your sanity." No doubt. Of course, Bochy is referring to Angel Pagan's ninth inning three run home run--he often seems like a three-run-home-run kind of guy. And I can't say that I didn't feel a touch of schadenfreude when Sean Marshall blew his first save of the season, especially after the troubles of the Giants bullpen.

So, if we're going to focus on sanity, what positives might we take out of Cincinnati?

First, Brandon Belt had a few days of being a little less jerked around. The result: Belt returns to San Francisco with a .273/.368/.364 slash line. Aubrey Huff will be on the DL for the next few weeks, so I'd like to think that with some regular playing time, Belt can keep up these kind of numbers while reducing those ugly strikeouts (11K in 38 PA). Whether he has a hole in his swing or not, plenty of people would take that .368 OBP.

Second, Santiago Casilla was on fire. It's the kind of stuff that .GIFs were created for:

From McCovey Chronicles (here)

Yup. That's the fearsome Joey Votto, Mr. HBP. I'm sure he's glad this series is over, considering that he went 2/11 with 5 strikeouts.

Third, that guy at shortstop. Unless you obsessively followed spring training (like myself), or you're a fan of the Fresno Grizzlies, you probably hadn't heard of Joaquin Arias. Maybe you had vague memories of something about the A-Rod trade, which sent Arias to Texas rather than Robinson Cano. However, that shouldn't make a difference. You knew who Miguel Tejada and Orlando Cabrera were, and that didn't help, now did it?

Small sample size and all that aside, Arias was impressive, with two hits and a walk in four plate appearances, and, with the exception of one play involving Drew Stubbs and an infield hit, good defense. He bound to show up at some point, given that he had 28 hits in 70 ABs down in Fresno, with a .990 OPS, and given that the Giants really needed another available middle infielder. Some day we'll all have a good laugh when somebody recalls that Huff played second base on April 21st.

Looking Forward

The Giants begin a nine-game homestand on Friday, facing the Padres, the Marlins, and the Brewers. I'd like to think that they could make quick work of the Padres, considering that San Diego contributed to padding the Dodger's 13-6 record. It's only fair. With any luck, they'll also face Miami (7-11) and Milwaukee (9-10) before either of those two teams get hot.

Finally, let's not forget Pablo Sandoval. While everybody is watching Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and all the new guys, he's started the season with a nineteen game hitting streak (the longest in franchise history), in which he's hit .333/.388/.513. 

I invite you to mull that over with some Ornette Coleman.

Reading the Tea Leaves

I haven't posted much during spring training because I've sworn that I won't be lured into drawing what we philosophy professors call hasty generalizations (not that I haven't done that before...). This whole resolution will, in any case, be broken when I get around to writing a post about Gregor Blanco, the prime candidate for fourth outfielder (which is now here). 

But I don't really want to talk numbers right now. I want to read things into things the management says. Things about Brandon Belt and the 25 man roster. As reported by Rael Enteen at CSN, Bruce Bochy was fielding more of those pesky questions about Belt getting time playing in the outfield, when he tipped his cards (that, folks, is a mixed metaphor, and it's not going anywhere):

“[Belt’s] doing fine,” Bochy said. “He’s done OK. He played a little more right in his younger years so I think he’s a little more comfortable there. I just want to take a look at him there but more likely he’ll be going back to left, particularly at our ballpark. Melky will probably be the one going to right field. But I just want to take a look at it. Huff will play some outfield, too. We’ll have to make that decision, which way we think is the best way to go.”

See? He said our ballpark. Now, Bruce Bochy is the manager of the San Francisco Giants, who play at AT&T Park, not the manager of the Fresno Grizzlies, who don't play home games at AT&T. The reference to Huff makes it clear that we're talking about 2012, and not 2013, when Huff will not be part of the team and it should be obvious that Belt, barring any number of things that can happen during a season, would be starting at first base.

Our ballpark...Brandon Belt...25 man roster, 2012. We'd prefer him starting at first, but whatever gives him regular playing time.

We've cracked the code. Now if only we could figure out the algorithm for Sabean-metrics. But we made it this far. We're a step ahead of the Pill and Huff factions.

Not convinced yet? Yeah, me neither. We're going to have to wait a few more weeks before this whole Belt/Huff/Pill issue is resolved. In fact, I get the funny feeling that the fate of Gregor Blanco, the prime long-shot candidate to make the 25 man team, is intertwined with the battle of first base.

Back to reading the tea leaves.

First Base 2012

In the teenage lingo of lore, getting to first base isn't so great. But getting to start at first for the 2012 San Francisco Giants--well, that's something. There's only one first base, and four candidates to play it: Aubrey Huff, Brandon Belt, Brett Pill, and Buster Posey. I'd like to think there's some way to make this work, but the scenarios are pretty involved--and imagine all the typing that this would involve when we've all got that same bad feeling that Aubrey Huff is going to eat up most of the games that Posey isn't starting at first (which could be between thirty or forty games). And you know what, if those pilates are paying off (seriously), and Huff returns to 2010 form, so be it--although I'd prefer that he does this while playing left field.

But what I don't want to see from the guy that amassed the team-leading 579 plate appearances is this kind of thing in 2012 (via McCovey Chronicles)*:

To be fair, only 280 of those PAs were at home.

That's a great skill if the Giants need a guy to give Freddy Sanchez some practice fielding, but otherwise it's a rally sink-hole. And though I can imagine that Huff's going to be in the starting lineup come April, I'd like to think that he can't repeat 2011 again, Bochy's veteran-love or not.

But if Huff's job is not guaranteed, and if he doesn't stay in the starting lineup or platoons, who shares his spot? I wouldn't have thought this to be much of a question until Pill was called up late last season.  He seems to be the natural candidate for a lefty/righty platoon with Huff. In contrast to Belt's troubles (whether they were his fault or the fault of being jerked-around between San Francisco and Fresno), Pill hit a home run in his first major league at bat. Those are the kind of things that seem to get stuck, like some ingratiating top 40 jam, in the heads of the management. It seems counter-intuitive, but the platoon could be, as it could have been in 2011, Huff/Belt. Sure Belt struggled at the plate, but he seemed to have it down against lefties:

Split	G	PA	H	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs LHP as LHB	29	51	16	.348	.412	.522	.934

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2012.

In fact, now that I mention it, we shouldn't even be thinking platoon. Let's face it, if Huff stinks it up, then he can sit on the bench and do the Pat Burrell thing for 2012, and maybe hit a crucial home run or two. And if it comes down to starting Pill or Belt, I think Belt gets a chance first. Sure, Pill hit for a .300/.321/.560 AVG/OBP/SLG, but with so few walks he has to hit the ball to be effective. And if he can, I'll be rooting for him. But look at Belt's numbers: though it's a .225/.306/.412 line, if he can raise his average just a bit, he'll on base more often than Pill, and even Huff (whose 2011 line was .246/.306/.370) for that matter. In fact, I think, in the best case scenario for 2012, Belt would be the starting first baseman.

*Duly noted: the real chart is still pretty disconcerting.