The Rockies Series Preview

(Stop here if you do not want to see the Giants' RHB/LHB splits in Coors Field).

On July 15th, during the top of the third inning, Marwin Gonzales hit a double to right field, making him the first Astro to reach base against Matt Cain in 2012. The play itself isn't that notable; it's more notable for the audible groan emitted from the denizens of AT&T Park, who believed, albeit fleetingly, that the heavy sediment of baseball history and statistics could have been washed away by the sheer force of Matt Cain's pitching.

Hell, I groaned, too. And you never know. It's still possible--although probably not against the Astros (only because they're moving to the American League).

Now, I say this because expectations can wreak havoc on the baseball experience. Take a glance at the Colorado Rockies' numbers. 38-65. A team ERA of 5.36, with the starting pitchers putting up a 6.35 ERA. In Coors Field, opponents are posting a .307/.367/.512 slash line--although to put that in perspective, the Rockies are batting .290/.358/.490.

I see numbers like this, and I know what I want to believe, especially after that last homestand. Hmmm. Let's try to find some perspective. How did the Giants do during their last series in Colorado? .270/.344/.450. Hmmm. Not quite .307/.367/.512, but they haven't faced the Rockies since the pitching meltdown. What about platoon splits? Bruce Bochy loves him some platoon splits, and the Giants are facing a lefty tonight, so it's going to be Joaquin Arias at short and the Fresno Bomber at first.

Split	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
as RHB@COL-Coors Fld	3	42	9	1	0	0	1	.225	.262	.250	.512	.273
as LHB@COL-Coors Fld	3	83	21	7	0	4	11	.296	.386	.563	.949	.288

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/3/2012.

Whoa. That's got to be a small sample size thing. The drastic difference in walks says that there is something about who bats left and who bats right at play. But the Rockies show a similar type of split, albeit with a larger differential in BABIP.

Split	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
as RHB@COL-Coors Fld	55	1334	334	73	11	37	98	.276	.333	.447	.779	.307
as LHB@COL-Coors Fld	55	831	223	42	17	34	98	.314	.399	.564	.963	.367

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/3/2012.

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But, if I'm going to peruse these numbers, I will at least end by pointing out that Brandon Crawford's career numbers are .400/.464/.760 with three doubles and two home runs. Just saying. I want the Giants to clean up in Colorado, but it could be difficult.

Not to mention that they will be facing Jonathan Sanchez. I've waxed nostalgic about his contributions to the Giants before, so I won't be repeating that here. The way that the Giants play against Sanchez might just be an indicator of what to expect in August. To say that he's had a rough season is an understatement. His overall numbers for 2012 include an 8.32 ERA, 0.88 K/BB (50 BB/44 K), and a 2.092 WHIP. 

I'd like to think that the Giants have him scouted and have coached their hitters, but I fear that, despite all the information they have, they're going to get impatient and hack, hack, hack. Those are the kind of fears that a 3-7 homestand can instill in a person. 

Hack, hack, hack. 

Please, don't. 

Fine, hack a little, but win. Ryan Vogelsong's on the mound.

Win two and pound some Budweiser.

Sweep. 

Stay in first place.

The Cabrera/Sanchez Trade

At some point in the 2011 season, I started telling a joke about how a player's lackluster performance could land him a trade to Kansas City.

I don't exactly remember why I chose the Royals as the butt of the joke, but their team certainly qualifies over the last few years as a kind of baseball purgatory (not unlike the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Washington Nationals), although I do get the feeling that it had something to do with Jeremy Affeldt's cromulent month of May, which was reinforced by his season-ending incident with those frozen hamburgers.

The Melky Cabrera trade, then, surprised me because I hadn't quite imagined that Jonathan Sanchez would end up there. It always seemed like the destination for somebody else...aside from Affeldt, if you could put aside the payroll factors, the Aaron Rowands and Barry Zitos of the world. Somebody like Sanchez, I thought, could shape up. Sure, that walk ratio is horrendous, but his strikeout rate (9.355 per 9 innings since 2006) surely means something. But as I've mentioned before, who the Giants will put on offer to trade does not take place in a vacuum. They've got four solid starters, and two or three fifth starters, with one who has a contract that means he can't be traded and he can't be kept on the bench. 

That meant Sanchez was going to be moved to address the Giants' weaknesses on offense. Say whatever you want (especially about that 2010 season), but I think that Melky Cabrera's 2011 numbers show that he will be a good addition to the team: the 201 hits, the 18 home runs, the 44 doubles, the .305/.339/.809 AVG/OBP/OPS line, certainly outpace most of the 2011 Giants, and especially whoever happened to be the first guy standing in the batter's box--although his walk/strikeout ratio (35/94) leaves something to be desired.

If I had to forecast the 2012 season, I'd say that Cabrera is not quite Carlos Beltran, but he's not Coco Crisp either (and if you read the McCovey Chronicles, Grant Brisbee seemed to think that Crisp's acquisition was a fait accompli). The trade also makes me wonder how the Giants' perceive the free agent market. If I had to guess, maybe they think Beltran will find that his talents fit with an American League team as a designated hitter, and they weren't ready to make an expensive "lateral move" (in Brisbee's words) for Crisp. In this case, acquiring Cabrera makes a lot of sense--no matter how much I wanted to see, for different reasons, an improved Andres Torres or Cody Ross out in center field.

What about the so-called purgatory? I'd like to think that if the Royals turn things around and become contenders, that Sanchez would have an important part to play there. Then I would have to make jokes at another team's expense.