Meet Gregor Blanco

From the KC Star

By now you've probably heard about Gregor Blanco. If he keeps doing what he's doing, he's going to be the fourth outfielder this season. Before the fake games started, the Giants put out the word that they were going to ramp up the running game, and he's the guy who took it really seriously. He's got six stolen bases in seven attempts. He does this kind of stuff:

The non-roster invitee drew a walk in the bottom of the first and stunned the Indians by going first-to-third on a hit-and-run groundout to first base. Blanco scored a batter later on Pablo Sandoval’s soft groundout to the left side. If you’re keeping track at home, Blanco also went first-to-third on a wild pitch earlier this spring.

There's something slightly unnerving about emphasizing the running game. We've all learned from Moneyball that a team shouldn't put themselves in a position to give away outs, so no bunting and no stealing (or, at least don't make it your strategy). An aggressive running game can get players into trouble, so that they give away outs. In the photo up there from a game against Kansas City, Blanco pushed to second, overslid the bag and was subsequently tagged out.

And yet, after reading that quote it's difficult not to see the logic of aggressive baserunning, if the more capable players are doing it. If you take Blanco's moves out of the equation, here's the first inning of that game against Cleveland (names deleted to protect the innocent):

1. Centerfielder walks. No out.
2. Leftfielder grounds out to first, CF to second. One out.
3. Thirdbaseman grounds out to shortstop, CF stays at second. Two out.
4. Catcher ground out to short. Inning over.

That looks very 2011: first batter gets on, three groundouts. Now the first logical step seems to be, work on the hitting. But if you've got to play small ball, play small ball. The Giants will need the runs (or so it seems).

Still, it feels like a recipe for running into outs, though I think I can accept the occasional out if the said baserunner can get on base frequently. Which leads me to Blanco's career OBP: in 836 PA his OBP is .358.

I'd think if he makes the team, they would be expecting something comparable. To this OBP into perspective, it's a step in the right direction compared to their go-to outfielders for most of 2011: Rowand's OBP was .274, Torres' was .312, Ross posted .325, Schierholtz posted .326 and Burrell's was .352. And then there are Blanco's spring training stats, which get guys like Bruce Bochy talking like this:

“He can be a great starter, too,” Bochy said. “With those tools — I’m not going to pencil him in, but the player that you see is young and I’m sure at some point in his career he’s going to be starting.”

The evidence suggests that Blanco will be the fourth outfielder this season--maybe even starting with the Giants at some point in the future. Of course, before we get ahead of ourselves...those spring training numbers will have to translate into regular season success. And if that works out, I wouldn't mind the Giants fielding a player whose baserunning wreaks havoc on an opposing team's defense.

Reading the Tea Leaves

I haven't posted much during spring training because I've sworn that I won't be lured into drawing what we philosophy professors call hasty generalizations (not that I haven't done that before...). This whole resolution will, in any case, be broken when I get around to writing a post about Gregor Blanco, the prime candidate for fourth outfielder (which is now here). 

But I don't really want to talk numbers right now. I want to read things into things the management says. Things about Brandon Belt and the 25 man roster. As reported by Rael Enteen at CSN, Bruce Bochy was fielding more of those pesky questions about Belt getting time playing in the outfield, when he tipped his cards (that, folks, is a mixed metaphor, and it's not going anywhere):

“[Belt’s] doing fine,” Bochy said. “He’s done OK. He played a little more right in his younger years so I think he’s a little more comfortable there. I just want to take a look at him there but more likely he’ll be going back to left, particularly at our ballpark. Melky will probably be the one going to right field. But I just want to take a look at it. Huff will play some outfield, too. We’ll have to make that decision, which way we think is the best way to go.”

See? He said our ballpark. Now, Bruce Bochy is the manager of the San Francisco Giants, who play at AT&T Park, not the manager of the Fresno Grizzlies, who don't play home games at AT&T. The reference to Huff makes it clear that we're talking about 2012, and not 2013, when Huff will not be part of the team and it should be obvious that Belt, barring any number of things that can happen during a season, would be starting at first base.

Our ballpark...Brandon Belt...25 man roster, 2012. We'd prefer him starting at first, but whatever gives him regular playing time.

We've cracked the code. Now if only we could figure out the algorithm for Sabean-metrics. But we made it this far. We're a step ahead of the Pill and Huff factions.

Not convinced yet? Yeah, me neither. We're going to have to wait a few more weeks before this whole Belt/Huff/Pill issue is resolved. In fact, I get the funny feeling that the fate of Gregor Blanco, the prime long-shot candidate to make the 25 man team, is intertwined with the battle of first base.

Back to reading the tea leaves.

Consider Dan Runzler

Not so long ago--no, make that ages ago, before pitchers and catchers started arriving for spring training--I spent some time speculating about who would make the cut on the 25 man roster. I noted that

If one of the right-handed relievers flames out (we're looking at you, Hensley), I'd imagine that they'd give a shot to Steve Edlefsen, on the premise that his last few weeks in the 2011 season were an exhaustion-ridden outlier, and not the curse of the Runzler.

That final phrase seemed to write itself, which is a good reason to wonder about its accuracy. If there's such a curse, it refers to home-grown relievers who have a season in which they don't pitch to (what is hopefully) their full potential. While the Giants have committed to LHPs Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez for 2012, there is good reason to think that Dan Runzler will be in the Giants' organization for several more years, especially because he's 26, he won't be eligible for arbitration until 2014, and won't be a free agent until 2017. That thought isn't so inspiring if we focus on the negative trends in his career numbers, the ERA(+), H/9 and SO/9:

Year	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	BF	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9
2009	0	0	1.04	11	8.2	6	1	1	1	5	11	38	429	1.269	6.2	5.2	11.4
2010	3	0	3.03	41	32.2	29	12	11	1	20	37	144	130	1.500	8.0	5.5	10.2
2011	1	2	6.26	31	27.1	29	21	19	0	16	25	120	58	1.646	9.5	5.3	8.2
3 Yrs	4	2	4.06	83	68.2	64	34	31	2	41	73	302	95	1.529	8.4	5.4	9.6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2012.

Nevertheless, I'd like to think that 2011 is an outlier. Putting aside the part about Giants' fans (myself included) having unrealistic expectations regarding pitching, 2010 was a decent season, while it's very difficult to think "caveat: small sample" looking at his 1.04 ERA in 2009 (note that his minor-league season ERA was 0.76 in 59 innings from A to AAA).

Then, today, Andrew Baggerly (at his new job) brings news that Runzler has been working with Dave Righetti to hone his delivery. At this point, much of what we read is characterized by reassuring fans that all hell hasn't broken loose in camp, but it's good to hear that Righetti has identified the problem with Runzler's mechanics, and they are working on it. After Baggs characterizes Runzler's delivery as "herky jerky," Righetti responds:

“Go with that,” Righetti said. “With him, it is an issue and it has been. He got to the big leagues throwing more sidearm with a slurvy breaking ball. But it got away from him. He had trouble going through lineups, seeing hitters second time around, and blah blah blah. So we’ve tried to smooth him out. He’s leading with his front arm, which is a big key.”

The proof of their success comes, of course, when Runzler takes the mound during a game:

“I get so excited,” Runzler said. “My emotions take over and it’s like I cannot wait to deliver the pitch. I end up overanxious to throw and I go too fast. Now I’m working on getting my front shoulder out there more. It works. The ball comes out really well and the command is a lot better when you’re smooth. I feel this is something I can repeat.”

Given that he is a long shot for 2012 after Affeldt and Lopez, Runzler is focused on improving his game:

“Every rep counts,” he said. “Fix it in one pitch instead of three pitches. That’s what you have to do in a game, so you might as well do it that way on the side. I’m really concentrating on that mental part of the game.”

*

I'd be remiss if I didn't spend some time searching through Runzler's splits and looking for good numbers to cherry-pick. Despite whatever problems he's had over the past two years, he doesn't have them at AT&T park. From 2009 to 2011, he has posted some pretty ridiculous numbers during home games, allowing only one earned run in 29.2 innings pitched:

Split	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
Home	1	0	0.30	36	29.2	18	2	1	0	16	2	40	120	1.146	12.1	2.50
Away	3	2	6.92	47	39.0	46	32	30	2	25	2	33	182	1.821	7.6	1.32

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2012.

Perhaps Runzler can pioneer the "hometown specialist" role.

The Most Dismal Game of 2011

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller nominates the Giants/Tigers game of July 2 as the worst game of the 2011 season. I remember this one well: Barry Zito started and there was a long rain delay. I could have been horrible, but as I recall, as dull as things got, watching the Giants score 15 runs--including a grand slam by Miguel Tejada, and homers from Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Crawford--was worth it (unless you were rooting for the home team). Why? Those 15 runs were 2.63% of all the runs they scored all season--we may as well have enjoyed them.

Now...perhaps calling something the worst game is an exaggeration. But I can say that the most dismal game I watched during the season was the Mariners visiting the Blue Jays of July 20th. My buddy Mark and I watched it with Tao of Stieb. Seattle was eleven games into their disastrous losing streak. There was a moment of promise at the top of the first: Ichiro singles and then Brandon Morrow walked the next two batters. Based loaded, no outs. The next two guys could stand at the plate and wait on the count and hope to walk home an RBI. Or something. A sac fly. Anything. But then, strikeout, pop up, and line out. And that's about it for the Mariners until the fourth inning, and by then they're already down 5-2. In the bottom of the fourth, it was 8-2. 

And that's about where everybody tuned out. During the game we talked about the best of baseball books, and then switched to an episode of The Franchise.

Where Are They Now?
The Blue Jays finished the season 81-81, several games away from exploiting the long-awaited collapse of the Red Sox that ended their 2011 campaign.

The Mariners finished 67-95, after a soul crushing 17 game losing streak. Without the Mariners, the Giants would have finished last (of all MLB teams) in run production in 2011. Lacking a designated hitter (apparently) over the last year, during the off season Seattle traded pitcher Michael Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. Messianic puns not included.

July 20th ended at 12:00am July 21st, 2011. Before the day was out, the Blue Jays won 11-6.  Elsewhere, the Dodgers defeated the Giants 1-0 in San Francisco, the difference being a 7th inning home run by Dioner Navarro off Tim Lincecum. The Giants' offense basically consisted of three singles (Stewart 2, Burriss). Observers will continue to be puzzled by Chris Stewart's .556/.556/1.444 career slash line versus Clayton Kershaw. Were this game not considered a classic pitchers' duel, it would have been the most dismal of the year.

Building a Lineup Out of the 40 Man Roster

Here we are, only a week before the first Giants start reporting to spring training. It's just about that time when we can start thinking about how the 25 man roster will take shape, the contours of the starting lineup, and about how there will be some non-roster invitee who might break out and shake everything up, at least on the offense. Here's the MLB Depth Charts take on these questions:

1 CF Angel Pagan
2 LF Melky Cabrera
3 3B Pablo Sandoval
4 C Buster Posey
5 1B Aubrey Huff
6 RF Nate Schierholtz
7 2B Freddy Sanchez
8 SS Brandon Crawford

Given the numbers, the appropriate amount of the Bochy and Sabean veteran love, and all other tangible and intangible factors (whatever that means), maybe that's a just lineup: as I've mentioned before, Nate Schierholtz did actually play himself into the starting lineup in 2011, and we all know that Huff is going to get a shot to make everybody forget his lackluster 2011 season. Nevertheless, let's face it. It's been a long offseason, and we want something that tells us that 2012 is going to be better:

1 CF Angel Pagan
2 RF Melky Cabrera
3 3B Pablo Sandoval
4 C Buster Posey
5 LF Aubrey Huff
6 1B Brandon Belt
7 2B Freddy Sanchez
8 SS Brandon Crawford/Ryan Theriot

Sure, it's not fair to Schierholtz, but I think it's obvious that if there is a breakout season to be had, it's going to be taken by Brandon Belt. So Huff goes to left, and Schierholtz gets the call for the 7th inning shuffle.

So that gives us 9 spots. The rotation (Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner/Vogelsong/Zito) takes up five more spots, and the bullpen seven:

LHP Jeremy Affeldt

LHP Javier Lopez

RHP Santiago Casilla
RHP Sergio Romo

RHP Brian Wilson

RHP Guillero Mota

RHP Clay Hensley

That leaves four on the bench:

OF Nate Schierholtz

IF Mike Fontenot

IF/OF Emmanuel Burriss

C Chris Stewart

Now I know that Eli Whiteside signed as a free agent, but I'd like to imagine that Stewart, whose defense is better, would land the backup job. That leaves, at the moment, six players out of the remaining members of the 40 man roster waiting in the wings (I'm not including prospects in this list):

LHP Dan Runzler

LHP Eric Surkamp

RHP Steve Edlefsen

1B Brett Pill

3B Conor Gillaspie

C Hector Sanchez

Putting injuries aside, if I had to make some wildly uninformed guesses, I'd say that we will probably see several of these players over the course of the season: Hector Sanchez would be the obvious call up if/when the Giants decide to move to a three catcher set-up during inter-division play, opening the DH spot for Buster Posey. I wouldn't be surprised if this happens, although it seems that Burriss would get DFAed in this situation. If this kind of shuffling starts, I'd suppose that the management had decided that Fontenot/Theriot/and possibly Gillaspie could back up Freddie Sanchez at second.

If one of the right-handed relievers flames out (we're looking at you, Hensley), I'd imagine that they'd give a shot to Steve Edlefsen, on the premise that his last few weeks in the 2011 season were an exhaustion-ridden outlier, and not the curse of the Runzler. 

Then again, Gregor Blanco or some other non-roster invitee could crash the party, and all of this speculation would end up sounding like what it is: baseball-desperate preseason nonsense.

Ross the BOS

Dear Mark*,

If you happened to wake up with an extra spring in your step, it must be because the deal between Cody Ross and your Boston Red Sox went through. You were probably dreaming of the 2010 NLCS MVP crushing home runs in clutch games against the CC Sabathias and Justin Verlanders of the world, or even the Roy Halladays, since your team's got a few games against the Phillies in 2012--on their turf, no less.

Some of your masshole bretheren, they weren't as stoked. While you were snoozing they were already kicking up a fuss in the comments section of MLB.com or the Boston Globe. Maybe I'll forgive them; they don't remember 2010 like I do. 

Consider, however, for a moment, Carl Crawford's  2011 AVG/OBP/SLG line: .255/.289/.405. We'll grant that Crawford underperformed in 2011, but note that Ross finished with a .240/.325/.405 line. You'll surely notice the second two numbers there. And he hit 6 home runs (of 14 total) in AT&T Park. That's equivalent to what, a dozen dingers at Fenway, or at least a spike in doubles since some of those long fly balls won't be landing snuggly in left-fielders' gloves. And he won't even bring that 2011 season-ending-ball-squibbling-away-in-Baltimore baggage.

Maybe I'm cherry-picking numbers. But when he crushes in the clutch against Sabathia or CJ Wilson, you'll know what I'm talking about.

Sincerely,

Mr. Left Field Line

(*In case you're wondering, I've watched a lot of Red Sox games since I've made Mark's acquaintance. He's probably the only person I talk about the BoSox with)

First Base 2012

In the teenage lingo of lore, getting to first base isn't so great. But getting to start at first for the 2012 San Francisco Giants--well, that's something. There's only one first base, and four candidates to play it: Aubrey Huff, Brandon Belt, Brett Pill, and Buster Posey. I'd like to think there's some way to make this work, but the scenarios are pretty involved--and imagine all the typing that this would involve when we've all got that same bad feeling that Aubrey Huff is going to eat up most of the games that Posey isn't starting at first (which could be between thirty or forty games). And you know what, if those pilates are paying off (seriously), and Huff returns to 2010 form, so be it--although I'd prefer that he does this while playing left field.

But what I don't want to see from the guy that amassed the team-leading 579 plate appearances is this kind of thing in 2012 (via McCovey Chronicles)*:

To be fair, only 280 of those PAs were at home.

That's a great skill if the Giants need a guy to give Freddy Sanchez some practice fielding, but otherwise it's a rally sink-hole. And though I can imagine that Huff's going to be in the starting lineup come April, I'd like to think that he can't repeat 2011 again, Bochy's veteran-love or not.

But if Huff's job is not guaranteed, and if he doesn't stay in the starting lineup or platoons, who shares his spot? I wouldn't have thought this to be much of a question until Pill was called up late last season.  He seems to be the natural candidate for a lefty/righty platoon with Huff. In contrast to Belt's troubles (whether they were his fault or the fault of being jerked-around between San Francisco and Fresno), Pill hit a home run in his first major league at bat. Those are the kind of things that seem to get stuck, like some ingratiating top 40 jam, in the heads of the management. It seems counter-intuitive, but the platoon could be, as it could have been in 2011, Huff/Belt. Sure Belt struggled at the plate, but he seemed to have it down against lefties:

Split	G	PA	H	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs LHP as LHB	29	51	16	.348	.412	.522	.934

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2012.

In fact, now that I mention it, we shouldn't even be thinking platoon. Let's face it, if Huff stinks it up, then he can sit on the bench and do the Pat Burrell thing for 2012, and maybe hit a crucial home run or two. And if it comes down to starting Pill or Belt, I think Belt gets a chance first. Sure, Pill hit for a .300/.321/.560 AVG/OBP/SLG, but with so few walks he has to hit the ball to be effective. And if he can, I'll be rooting for him. But look at Belt's numbers: though it's a .225/.306/.412 line, if he can raise his average just a bit, he'll on base more often than Pill, and even Huff (whose 2011 line was .246/.306/.370) for that matter. In fact, I think, in the best case scenario for 2012, Belt would be the starting first baseman.

*Duly noted: the real chart is still pretty disconcerting.