Buster Posey, Forever and Ever

From here

Today it was announced that the Giants have signed Buster Posey to a deal that has the potential to make him a Giant for his entire career, or at least until 2022. Alex Pavlovic writes:

The nine-year, $167 million contract is the longest ever for a catcher and is a record deal for a player with fewer than four years of service time. It also easily surpasses Matt Cain’s deal as the biggest in franchise history.

The deal includes a full no-trade clause and awards bonuses (he is the MVP, after all), and guarantees a yearly contribution of $50,000 from Posey to Giants charities.

I'm sure in the coming days, there will be lots of analysis concerning this deal, with various people worrying or concern-trolling about Posey's health and that whole thing about being a catcher.

As a fan, I can't say anything other than I am elated. I thought about posting a photo essay about the various teams for which Posey will not play (in all likelihood...or, at least until he's 35), but I realized I did that last year with Matt Cain. Then I considered that I don't even know what I'll be doing when I'm thirty-five, and that's only a few months away, but that's not really a topic for this blog.

This contract cements the fact that Posey is part of the long-term plans of the Giants, in ways that other position players aren't. Of course, part of this has to do with his offense, with a career slash line of .314/.380/.503, not to mention a 12.9 WAR (according to Fangraphs).

Part of this is perhaps that intangible aspect of how he handles the pitching staff, but it's not difficult to figure out that he won't be spending a majority of his time behind the dish by his thirties. We know he plays first, but now is also a good time to recall that Bochy was grumbling something about Posey being able to play third because he's that athletic.

Speaking of third base, we know that one of Posey's favorite players growing up was Chipper Jones. There's no time like the present to be a fanboy, so let's take a look at those numbers...search...Chipper Jones BARVES...19 years, all with the same team, .303/.401/.529 slash line, 85.1 fWAR. Chipper would be one hell of a comp. Especially concerning spending his whole career with one team, never becoming a Dodger or a Yankee.

Who knows if these are realistic expectations. They might not be. They probably aren't. However, there's time to worry about that later. Right now it's a great day for Giants fans.

A Thousand Words on Cody Ross

How about we settle on a picture instead?*

It turns out I probably can't hate the guy unless he's wearing pinstripes or Dodger blue. We'll have to check back on this later in the real season.

In his lone at-bat today, he struck out looking against the 2012 postseason folk hero, Barry Zito. 

Damn, now I'm curious about his slash lines...let's see...

• His career against the Giants: .253/.301/.421.
• His career at AT&T Park: .262/.331/.417.
• And we might not want to get too used to him striking out looking against Zito. In 18 PAs, Ross has batted .333/.389/.667 with a dinger. He's also hit a home run against Matt Cain (and the video reveals that he does the home run hop/skip against the Gigantes, too), but unless we're talking about RHPs named Roy Halladay, I'm more concerned with Ross's lefty-mashing power.

*See what I did there?

The Fake Games Begin

The fake games begin...and the Giants defeat the Angels 4-1. The Dodgers fall to the White Sox, 9-0. Before we get caught up quibbling about the fake games narratives, a reminder of their ultimate significance:

Getting the Band Back Together

Saturday was the first full team workout. That means it's probably time to start getting my thoughts together about the 2013 Giants. The most obvious aspect of the the 2013 team is that it looks remarkably similar to the 2012 team that won the World Series. 

There's a part of me that says: isn't that what the front office did for the 2011 team? However, I think that the 2012 team had much stronger players than the 2010 team. There's an easy way to encapsulate the difference: the continuity of 2012-2013 is based on a core set of players who've come up through the Giants' system, who I'd like to think have not hit their ceiling. It's still possible, for instance--and this isn't just spring training talking--that Brandon Crawford could improve on his .248/.304/.349 slash line. Admittedly, he struggled during the first half, but showed a marked improvement during the second. I'd take either his August (.281/.329/.359) or September (.288/.351/.409) for 2013--although there's no way that September .380 BABIP is sustainable; August's .327 is a more modest request. To put the numbers in perspective, his season BABIP was .307, while ZiPS projects a .230/.292/.340 slash line for 2013, which I think is too low given that Bruce Bochy seemed to be fairly careful with platooning Crawford to get the best performance out of him. (See also Hank Schulman's piece on this subject here).

And Brandon Belt has room to improve as well. Eno Sarris at Fangraphs has an interesting piece on Belt's turning point, about learning to love the line drives, during 2012 if you're interested. And you should be.

By contrast, the strategy for 2011 seemed to be: 'We just need to catch a few career years as the veterans role downhill, just like last year.' Aaron Rowand. Aubrey "Infield Fly" Huff. Miguel Tejada. Orlando Cabrera. Okay. That's enough of 2011.

Well, not exactly. The Giants, to get the band back together, have also brought back two important pieces of 2010, who were traded after the 2011 season to the Mets for Angel Pagan: Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. You probably don't want to look at their 2012 numbers. The odds are that Ramirez, who is a non-roster invitee, will be competing for the longman role in the bullpen, which admits of numbers that are closer to his 2012, but it would be nice for him to settle into a season like 2011, with a 2.62 ERA (133 ERA+) and 8.7 K/9. It might help his case that the competition--the likes of Chad Gaudin and Sandy Rosario--aren't exactly inspiring (inspiring yet...?).

And Torres, the fan favorite of 2010...what is there to say? He was a crucial part of the 2010 team, and while he struggled in 2011 he never caught the ire of fans as did Rowand, Huff, or Tejada. As for 2013, he'll be judged on his ability to platoon against lefties to Gregor Blanco's right handed opponents. Over his career, Torres' numbers as a right handed batter are slightly better than him batting left handed, thought the splits are much more drastic in 2012:

Split	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs RHP as LHB	262	226	44	7	5	3	.195	.292	.310	.602	.246
vs LHP as RHB	171	147	42	10	2	0	.286	.382	.381	.763	.362

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/17/2013.

Yes, drastic. But since I'm currently obsessing with BABIP, look at the difference there. While that's not sustainable--his career number is .309--the OBP is impressive enough. Nevertheless, left field could get crowded this season, with Belt, Brett Pill, Blanco, and Torres potentially spending time out there. As we know with Bochy, that's determined by who has the hot bat. Until then, Torres is saying all the right things:

Torres said the Mets tried to bring him back and the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers expressed interest. But throughout the process, he was eyeing only one destination.

“This is home for me,” he said. “San Francisco gave me an opportunity when I was in the minors to make the team, and gave me a job. I won the World Series here. I really appreciated those things."

Speaking of 2010 post-season heroics, Cody Ross will be patrolling the outfield for the Diamondbacks for the next three years. Would we really want to see Torres in Dodger blue?

Was There Any Question?

Buster Posey is the National League MVP in 2012. Did you have any doubts?

I'm pretty sure the Giants won something important at the end of the season. Oh, of course, the World Series!

But that's not supposed to be a factor. It must be his .336/.408/.549 slash line. That looks very good, but Baseball Reference says he's got a league leading OPS+ of 172. I guess the National League baseball writers aren't afraid of fancy numbers.

But we're here for GIFs. Maybe I'm late to the party, but I just discovered this. It includes classics like:

And while I could look at that grand slam off of Mat Latos for hours, we shouldn't forget this gem:

Giants Take Two, Two To Go

Admit it. There's a masochistic side to you that wanted to see the Giants win a handful of elimination games in the World Series.* Sure, that was by turns anguishing and exhilarating, but I'll take the Giants exactly where they are now, heading to Detroit with a two game lead. I promise that if things work out, I won't even lament that they might have just played their last game of the season at home. 

Before we get ahead of ourselves, however, I know two words that should give you pause: Anibal Sanchez. He's been known to mow down the Giants and induce high amounts of spectator stress for doing so, especially at AT&T Park. Fortunately, the Giants have two things going for them: first, Ryan Vogelsong, and second, Sanchez is not invincible outside of AT&T: in Miami on May 24th, he pitched 5 1/3 innings and gave up five runs on seven hits and two walks. If we could cherry-pick a few things from the boxscore, you'll note that Ryan Vogelsong was the starting pitcher, and that Emmanuel Burriss was playing second. I think the Giants found an upgrade at second somewhere along the line, but I just can't recall. Was it Ryan Theriot? And don't look at the part about Javier Lopez. Don't do it!

What I'll need to remember when I look back at this years from now:

GAME 1: 8-3 Giants

First, Barry Zito has become The Junkball Superstar. Bronson Arroyo would write a nice tuneful tribute, but he's still a bit upset at the whole NLDS thing. Sure, we can stare at Zito's Baseball Reference page for hours and try to puzzle it through, considering the 4.15 that in 2010 got him left off the post-season roster, and that in 2012 made him the go-to guy for Game 1 of the World Series. We could even talk about how his ERA+ was 94 in 2010, and 84 in 2012. Is he actually a lesser pitcher this year? Or does it say more about the (temporary?) fall of Tim Lincecum? Or, that Bruce Bochy was prepared to use all the tools of psychological warfare against Justin Verlander? Or, with a more proficient offense this year, Zito's flaws aren't nearly as glaring?

Was the crowd chanting Bar-ry and then Zi-to? Did I really get an email from a friend who actually wrote:

Forget about Panda's feats last night. It was Zito's night. It wasn't necessarily pretty,  but he had a plan that he stuck to. I suspect this will be a long series, but my prediction is Zito will be WS MVP.

For such a bold prediction, I will let you remain anonymous, Mark. Oh, whoops! That's set in stone like the rest of the Internet, so I can't change it now! Never forget, however, that this is Verlander (the first two times) and that's Pablo Sandoval:

I've never heard of those other guys who've hit three home runs in a World Series game, but I'm sure they're good people.**

By the end of this game, I was convinced that Lincecum's post-season calling is to be a super-reliever. He faced seven batters and struck out five. What, would you rather see Guillermo Mota in the middle innings?

GAME 2: 2-0 Giants

Fact: Doug Fister struck the fuck outta the Kansas City Royals and set some kind of record. Fact: Fister struck out only three Giants. For allowing a rare hit to the struggling Hunter Pence, he's the losing pitcher of record, although if baseball recorded assists, I'd say Drew Smyly cemented that one.

Otherwise, we got the Madison Bumgarner that we all remember from earlier in the season: 7IP, 2H, 2W, 8K, 0ER. One of the biggest fears of this post-season was the diminished capacity of the starting rotation, but over the past five games, Giants starters have allowed two earned runs in, hmmm, add the numbers, carry that one to the other one, 33 innings pitched. (Tack on Lincecum in Game 1 and it's 35 1/3). In case you're wondering, that went Zito, Vogelsong, Cain, Zito,  Bumgarner. Looks like everybody's in: next up, Vogelsong and Cain.

No time to look back now, just two more wins to go... 

* Make no mistake, they'll obviously have to win a game that includes eliminating Detroit, but how about not making it a handful?

**That would be Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson, and some guy who just cashed in with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Rooting Against the Tigers Begins Today

What exactly just happened over the month of October? Had you told me in March that the Giants would win the National League pennant after fighting back in six elimination games, and that Barry Zito would be a crucial component of the playoff rotation, I would have thought you were high as hell. And you might have been. But here we are. Barry Zito's starting Game 1 of the World Series against Justin Verlander. 

Though I haven't written anything about the playoffs. I'm sure it has something to do with going back to work at the university, and working on a book and an editing project that have nothing to do with baseball. But it also had to do with how exhausting watching the Giants win six elimination games. Including that time I was attending a conference talk, sweating Sergio Romo's twelve pitches to Jay Bruce. To tell the truth, it wasn't that nerve wracking to watch Ryan Vogelsong. In fact, I could watch those games with some obstinate idea that Vogelsong wouldn't accept not going to the World Series after his now-storied return to the Major Leagues. But, wow, the rest of the rotation has been a far cry from their shut down performances of 2010.

Yet the offense has been able to pick them up, at least until the Cardinals got shut down offensively in games five, six, and seven, when the offense picked up the pitching just on general principle--not to mention that the possibility of the the Cards coming back from a six run deficit would leave a very bitter taste.

Instead, the Giants are going to the World Series, and I've got to start mustering my baseball fury against the Detroit Tigers (even if I chose them for the World Series last year). May they under perform in the next four to seven games. 

Before the fall classic begins, never forget:

For that grand slam, Buster Posey is the official NLDS Exceptional Comrade of The Left Field Line.

The NLCS Excellent Comrades (a shared prize!) are Marco Scutaro and Ryan Vogelsong. In 30 plate appearances, Scutaro hit .500/.533/.607, with fourteen hits, most of those coming after being run over by Matt Holliday. 

Vogelsong destroyed the Cardinals with that fiery death stare. Oh, and he pitched 14 innings and gave up only eight hits, three walks, and two earned runs. If you throw in the hit batter, that's 12 baserunners, compared to 13 strikeouts. 

If he wants to go Satchel Paige and pitch night after night while decimating the opposition, I'd say let him.

The Giants Clinch the NL West...

...and somewhere else, Mat Latos grinds his teeth. Sure, it was Saturday, but he's probably still at it.

But we're not Mat Latos, and lol Dodgers. 

Yup, I just wrote that.

Anything But a Spoiler of Padres

The smile of a man whose rivals are a fluke of Diamondbacks.

Earlier today, thanks to @grumpyowl, I learned that the collective noun for magpies is "tidings," as in: "I saw a tidings of magpies." I responded that a few, lesser-known collective nouns include:

A bar-full of writers.

A murder of philosophers.*

No, seriously, look it up. You'll find support for this somewhere--probably, uh, right here. In any case, somewhere a Padres fan is trying to get "a spoiler of Padres" in The Oxford English Dictionary of Sport.** Yes, the magic number is three, and while the Padres can't prevent the Dodgers from stinking it up against the Reds this weekend, they can turn the next three games--and possibly three more in San Diego--into a mess of bloops, stolen bases and importune line drives. Maybe even a home run or two. Giants losses rather than wins. Sure, they don't have the greatest record, and you probably won't forget that part in April when they dropped six of seven against the Dodgers, but the Padres have an ax to grind. This probably has something to do with 2010, though I'm sure that this spoiler of Padres would also love to clinch a NL West rivalry with a team other than the Diamondbacks or the Rockies.

It's the Giants' job to let that lucky team be the Dodgers***--I mean, the Dodgers have Adrian Gonzalez! He's rightfully the Padres'. Right? No? Whatever? 

But beating the Padres cannot be taken for granted. Since the start of August, they've gone 28-17. Since those first two series against the Dodgers, they've gone 5-2 against LA. The Giants are 8-4 against San Diego, and if you're reading this, you probably share my interest in watching at least three more wins. Chalked up as soon as possible.

Nevertheless, here's a lineup of potentially irritating Padres:

Cabrera SS, Forsythe 2B, Headley 3B, Grandal C, Alonso 1B, Guzman LF, Venable RF, Maybin CF and Kelly RHP

Especially Headley. And probably Alonso. And Carlos Quentin at some point, though each Padre has a touch of potential spoiler within him. I say let him spoil sometime between September 25th and 27th.

As far as pitching goes, while they no longer have Mat Latos--he'll face the Dodgers on Saturday--they have a starting rotation, but not with any of the guys you remember, since they've all been injured. In the bullpen they have Luke Gregerson, and they just activated Huston Street from the DL. Bud Black has commanded them to spoil, because the Padres have six more games against San Francisco, and he knows that Bruce Bochy is three games away from peppering his  lineups with Pennies, Burrii, Pegueros and Pills. That's no way to play a rivalry.

Three.

Footnotes:
* Hegel said that somewhere. I promise.
**This doesn't exist, but if it did, it would be a prescriptivist's nightmare, with adverbial/adjectival jive such as "hitting the ball good" and "thank you very nice."
***It's like adding another wild card. The Giants are the Dodgers' first rivalry (always and forever), and the Padres would be the second.

The Home Stand Preview Wish List: Rockies Will Not Rock, Dodgers Will Not Dodge, Giants Will Not Implode

The Giants begin their final home stand of the season with a four game series against the Colorado Rockies. It's September, so it feels like the Giants just played the Rockies, and they  just did. But the big difference now is that they aren't at a Coors Field that was playing like the Coors Field of lore.

And the magic number is nine. That's definitely what you're thinking about, and it's what I'm thinking about. I am somewhat interested in the pitching match-ups (the Giants will see Jhoulys Chacin, Jeff Francis, Tyler Chatwood, and somebody else to be announced), but, but, but, the magic number. I've rolled the scenarios around, and would like to see the Giants clinch the NL West at home. Who, not draped in Dodger blue, wouldn't? And while the Giants see the Rockies, Padres, and Diamondbacks, the Dodgers face the Nationals, Reds, and Padres on the road. 

Nine. Any number of Giants wins and Dodger losses. In order for the final series of the season to be meaningful for the NL West division title, the Giants have to do no better than 5-8, and in that case, the Dodgers have to win all 12 of their games. But we already know, anything less than 6-4 (or, for some, 7-3) over the next ten games will feel like defeat.

OK, back to the Rockies. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, making jokes about how the Dodgers will have piled up a $198 million dollar payroll to face the Fresno Grizzlies at the end of the season. Those will come later.

First, what we need to know: baseball can be amazing, fun, weird, and hubristic. I'm not rooting for hubristic baseball. We've seen weird, lately, and a few amazing (which I'd define as those plays which produce yelling at the screen while they happen, including expressions of incredulity that such a play would turn out as it did, etc.) and fun things lately. However, do keep in mind that Carlos Gonzalez, Jordan Pacheco, and Wilin Rosario could be seriously aggravating hitters in crucial situations. Dexter Fowler and Josh Rutledge can get on base and be very annoying when one desires to retire the Rockies without weirdness.

And the Giants could hack, go and hack away at undertalented and/or beleaguered pitching staffs, although last time through Colorado, there was a decent display of plate discipline. It seems obvious that if a starting pitcher has a 75 pitch limit, that it helps the cause to let some pitches go by, and the odds are that Marco Scutaro and Buster Posey will see at least 20-25 of those. Pablo Sandoval, who I'd prefer to see not scuffle, will see at least two or three.

In the best-case scenario, the Rockies will not discover their offense. The Giants will not hack. The starting rotation will return to form, Buster Posey will do that MVP stuff, and Sandoval will be a little less of the sad panda with no plate discipline (.216/.273/.250... .250 slugging?!) that he's been for at least the past 28 days.

And more Buster Posey.

Bonus Round Against the Astros

This series is the last of three between the Giants and the Houston Astros. And, in a sense, it's been a gift, with the Giants taking five out of the first six. And at this moment, believe it or not, the Astros are probably worse--or at least in deeper disarray--than when the Giants last saw them. You've probably already heard, at the All Star Break they were a respectably bad 33-53, and since then, they've gone 7-35, with a twelve-game losing streak. Keep this in mind, because when they migrate to the American League, the National League is going to get just a little bit more difficult.

So I ask the Giants to take another three from the Astros. And I ask Houston's pitching staff to groove a few, so that Hunter Pence can get his swing back, and Buster Posey can ring up a few more dingers (look, I know that Posey is having a great season already--in the 37 games games since the break he's hit .404/.485/.691--but I foolishly told a friend of mine that he could hit 30 home runs this season, and he needs to close that gap).

And the Astros' offense should get together and consider letting Matt Cain throw another no-hitter. It would be something for the fans, right guys? If it's going to be miserable, how about making it historic?

In return, I offer the Houston Astros one of the first techno tracks ever recorded, Model 500's (or, as we know him today, Juan Atkins') "No UFOs." A song of hope, with lyrics such as

They say, “There is no hope”
They say, “No UFOs”
Why is no head held high?
Maybe you’ll see them fly…

That's an anthem right there for a future season of success...at the expense of the American League West. 

My First Game Since Candlestick Tim Hudsoned

Before today, I had only attended one major league baseball game. Over twenty years ago, we watched the Dodgers defeat the Giants at Candlestick Park. I recall a distinct lack of Giants' offense, people chanting "Jose Uribe," and perhaps some misplaced late-innings hope.

Aside from the Uribe thing, that pretty much summarizes this afternoon's game. Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not complaining. With two decades between games, I was just glad to be at the ballpark (and what a nice park it is--but you knew that). And it was probably easier to accept defeat because Tim Lincecum was pitching. It still feels bizarre to type that, but that is how this year has been. My brother noted that he's now seen three straight Lincecum duds, dating back to last year (adding that if it's Lincecum next time he'll just sell his ticket before the game). For my part, I would have been much angrier if Vogelsong, Cain, or Bumgarner were starting and lost, with the feeling that Atlanta was depriving me of something that was rightfully mine. And rightfully the Giants'. Something like that.

A few thoughts:

• We had great seats, not too far behind the visitors' dugout. However, we were also sitting in that part of the park that was the most saturated with Braves fans. Fortunately there were not enough of them to get the casually racist tomahawk chop thing going. Also, while I'm at it, 'Indian-caricature' mascots are not acceptable.
• From Rael Enteen: "Dating back to August 29, 2006, Tim Hudson owns a six-game winning streak against the Giants, spanning nine starts."
• Is it me, or do sinkerballers repeatedly baffle the Giants? Last year, I remember thinking that the Giants really ought to get them one of those, and then Steve Edlefsen cured me of that. But still...
• Chipper Jones got a standing ovation on the premise that his pinch-hitting appearance would be his last regular season appearance at AT&T Park. I can guarantee that at least one Giants fan considered it possible that Jones won't be coming back during the playoffs either--and not because the Giants didn't make it.
• Jason Heyward bunted. I said something like: "that was a gift. I would have charged the ball so it would have stayed fair. He's been knocking the ball all over...oh, yeah, just like that." And then it was almost impossible that Freddie Freeman wasn't going to get into the act. When Clay Hensley pitches like that it reminds you that Brad Penny. You know exactly what I mean. This piece on prospect Clayton Blackburn might make you feel better.
• Monday I'll be 'scouting' the Modesto Nuts. I would have preferred them to remain the Modesto A's, but I guess I can A) root against Bakersfield and/or B) check out the future victims of Jim Tracy's four man rotation piggyback relief circus. If I really go bonkers, the Ports will be in town Tuesday, and I might even try to catch a Mariners game while I'm up in Seattle for this.

Another Rockies Preview

Didn't I just write one of these? Since the Giants last saw the Rockies, they've taken two out of three against the Dodgers. Remember that hot mess of a pitching staff? Turns out they only allowed seven runs during that series.

How does this bode for the Giants, who are currently 6-2 against Colorado? This might have more to do with whether Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Barry Zito can quiet the few noisy bats that remain on the Rockies roster, because I'd like to think that the Giants' offense can handle Tyler Chatwood (6.61 ERA, although San Francisco didn't exactly contribute to that number last time), Drew Pomeranz (4.76 ERA--so he's the ace?), and Alex White (5.75 ERA).

Hell with it. We've got to keep up my spoiler theory of 2012 to justify the existence of the Colorado Rockies, so they need to continue to get swept by San Francisco while they manage to post a .500 or better record against the Dodgers. Like I just mentioned, the Giants are 6-2, while the Dodgers are 6-6 against Colorado. I see no reason to change course.

Cardinals Preview, Plus Good Reasons to Cheer for the Pirates and the Rockies This Week

Since a four-game series in St. Louis sounds pretty serious, I thought I'd scout the Cardinals in advance. So before dinner last night, I turned on their game against the Brewers. Here's what I came up with:

• They're not the Rockies.
• They have a record that is currently identical with the Giants: 59-49.
• Lance Lynn occupied what could have been Ryan Vogelsong's spot on the all-stars.
• These guys can hit.

I also wrote a preview for the two games in May that the Giants and Cardinals split. I mentioned two things of note:

First, I figured that Krukow and Kuiper wouldn't be able to resist talking about Carlos Beltran or possibly comparing him to Melky Cabrera. At the time, Beltran's slash line was .295/.407/.648 with 13 home runs (1.055 OPS), while Cabrera's was .333/.380/.487 with two homers (.867 OPS). And then Beltran didn't play much (one pinch hit appearance) and the point was moot. At this point in the season, the judgment that Melky would add more to the team bears out (and note the slugging percentages): Beltran is currently batting .286/.357/.537, while Cabrera is hitting .352/.397/.530. Melky's OPS is .927, Beltran's .894.

Second, I noted that Charlie Culberson's call-up probably indicated that the Giants wanted to know their infield depth with Freddy Sanchez out for the season. It turns out, with another injury to Pablo Sandoval, that they'd rather have Marco Scutaro, and I think that is a good decision. If you haven't noticed, he's put up some solid numbers as a Giant: .353/.410/.441. I don't expect him to continue such lofty production through the rest of the season, but he's been miscast as late-season bench-depth.

All this being said, I'm not sure what to expect from this series. While the Giants play the Cardinals, Jim Tracy is taking his extended spring training show on the road, and, of course, the Rockies are playing the Dodgers. We must ask of Colorado to do us a solid, and play the spoiler against the Dodgers, and then come to San Francisco to be swept over the weekend. That's not too much, right? Somebody's got to do it. 

Before Coors field, the Giants had scored 414 runs, and allowed 417, earning them a Pythagorean W-L ratio of 52-53. Going into St. Louis, they've scored 449 and allowed 430, tipping that ratio over to a winning record of 56-52. Now that I've typed it out, I've forgotten why I thought that was important.

Hey, look at that, the Diamondbacks play the Pirates. Go Pirates!

The Rockies Series Preview

(Stop here if you do not want to see the Giants' RHB/LHB splits in Coors Field).

On July 15th, during the top of the third inning, Marwin Gonzales hit a double to right field, making him the first Astro to reach base against Matt Cain in 2012. The play itself isn't that notable; it's more notable for the audible groan emitted from the denizens of AT&T Park, who believed, albeit fleetingly, that the heavy sediment of baseball history and statistics could have been washed away by the sheer force of Matt Cain's pitching.

Hell, I groaned, too. And you never know. It's still possible--although probably not against the Astros (only because they're moving to the American League).

Now, I say this because expectations can wreak havoc on the baseball experience. Take a glance at the Colorado Rockies' numbers. 38-65. A team ERA of 5.36, with the starting pitchers putting up a 6.35 ERA. In Coors Field, opponents are posting a .307/.367/.512 slash line--although to put that in perspective, the Rockies are batting .290/.358/.490.

I see numbers like this, and I know what I want to believe, especially after that last homestand. Hmmm. Let's try to find some perspective. How did the Giants do during their last series in Colorado? .270/.344/.450. Hmmm. Not quite .307/.367/.512, but they haven't faced the Rockies since the pitching meltdown. What about platoon splits? Bruce Bochy loves him some platoon splits, and the Giants are facing a lefty tonight, so it's going to be Joaquin Arias at short and the Fresno Bomber at first.

Split	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
as RHB@COL-Coors Fld	3	42	9	1	0	0	1	.225	.262	.250	.512	.273
as LHB@COL-Coors Fld	3	83	21	7	0	4	11	.296	.386	.563	.949	.288

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/3/2012.

Whoa. That's got to be a small sample size thing. The drastic difference in walks says that there is something about who bats left and who bats right at play. But the Rockies show a similar type of split, albeit with a larger differential in BABIP.

Split	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
as RHB@COL-Coors Fld	55	1334	334	73	11	37	98	.276	.333	.447	.779	.307
as LHB@COL-Coors Fld	55	831	223	42	17	34	98	.314	.399	.564	.963	.367

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/3/2012.

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But, if I'm going to peruse these numbers, I will at least end by pointing out that Brandon Crawford's career numbers are .400/.464/.760 with three doubles and two home runs. Just saying. I want the Giants to clean up in Colorado, but it could be difficult.

Not to mention that they will be facing Jonathan Sanchez. I've waxed nostalgic about his contributions to the Giants before, so I won't be repeating that here. The way that the Giants play against Sanchez might just be an indicator of what to expect in August. To say that he's had a rough season is an understatement. His overall numbers for 2012 include an 8.32 ERA, 0.88 K/BB (50 BB/44 K), and a 2.092 WHIP. 

I'd like to think that the Giants have him scouted and have coached their hitters, but I fear that, despite all the information they have, they're going to get impatient and hack, hack, hack. Those are the kind of fears that a 3-7 homestand can instill in a person. 

Hack, hack, hack. 

Please, don't. 

Fine, hack a little, but win. Ryan Vogelsong's on the mound.

Win two and pound some Budweiser.

Sweep. 

Stay in first place.

Bullpen Depth: George Kontos

The Giants snapped a five game losing streak, beating the Mets 4-1 behind a strong seven inning performance by Tim Lincecum. Which means that the odds were very low that George Kontos would take the mound in relief. Here's why.

George Kontos was acquired at the start of the season from the Yankees for Chris Stewart, and he was called up on June 9th. Since then, he has posted some good numbers, which he has earned--when he's right--with a sharp slider.

Year	W	L	ERA	G	IP	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2012	0	0	2.21	18	20.1	162	1.082	8.9	9.3	10.50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2012.

Despite those numbers, especially the 9.3 SO/9 and 10.5 SO/BB rates, it doesn't seem like Kontos has been used in many high leverage situations. He has, for instance, neither decisions nor saves (nor save opportunities). Then, a comment by Grant Brisbee (I can't find it at the moment, but it was something like: "what the hell is Brad Penny doing out there when Kontos would be better for this high leverage situation?") motivated me to check out his game logs to see when he's brought out to pitch, and I discovered an odd pattern.

On the one hand, it might be just what you expect from Bruce Bochy: in the eighteen games that Kontos has appeared in, the Giants are 6-12. Bochy doesn't yet trust the rookie.

But then it gets slightly weirder. Verging on a variation of Jim-Tracy-Colorado-Rockies-four-man-rotation weird. When Kontos debuted for the Giants, on June 10th against the Rangers, it began an idiosyncratic pattern: he's pitched in every game that Lincecum has started and not made it into the seventh inning since June 10th (6 games), and only once when he has (July 20th).

Lincecum's other starts during that period: June 27th against the Dodgers (7IP with the win), July 14th versus the Astros (8IP and what should have been his win) and last night vs. the Mets (7IP and the win).

Otherwise, Kontos is typically relieving Barry Zito, for a total of six appearances, with four of those being blowouts (in either direction).

The only real exception to this rule was the last Dodgers debacle, when Kontos appeared in all three games. If we subtract these, then eighty percent of his appearances follow Lincecum or Zito (12 of 15), and even if we don't, then it's 72 percent of the time.

The conclusion: the numbers suggest that Kontos ought to be used in situations with higher leverage. However, the Giants did not acquire additional bullpen help, and Bochy seems set on using Casilla, Affeldt, Romo and Lopez (CARL) in these spots. But there are plenty of times where it also appears that Bochy calls for Kontos in situations that would be more appropriate for Brad Penny (and vice versa), whose numbers are a little more situationally appropriate for eating up innings  rather than holding tied games (5.02 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.5 SO/BB rate). Using Kontos in the seventh or eight innings might also provide more flexibility with CARL in save-by-committee situations, especially if Romo (I doubt it) or Casilla (...) continue to struggle.

It Had to be Hunter Pence

Remember when it was only photoshopped?

Today, I'm a changed fan. Hunter Pence is now part of the San Francisco Giants, and I don't have a problem with that. I haven't mentioned him on this blog yet, and I'd only said a few things about him on twitter during the season. But if you would have asked me about him while the Giants were playing the Phillies, I'd grumble about how damn annoying he was, but otherwise with the unconventional swings, the awkward gait, and his enthusiasm for swinging at pitches outside of the zone, he was often pretty entertaining to watch against other teams. 

Wait. Unconventional swing? Awkward gait? Enthusiasm for swinging at pitches outside of the zone? I should have known--he was destined for the Giants. Except that he was part of the hated Phillies, and he had been batting .329/.366/.566 with 3 doubles and 5 home runs at AT&T Park. Of course, logic dictates that he accumulated part of those numbers as an Astro, but it felt like all of those extra base hits happened during high leverage situations while he was a Philly. I could look it up, but, well, now the point is moot.

In what will surely become the Hunter Pence controversy, the Phillies received Tommy Joseph, Nate Schierholtz, and Seth Rosin. If the Giants win the World Series in 2012 or 2013 (while Pence is under contract), this controversy will not emerge. Odds are it won't if they get to the playoffs.

However, this is baseball, so things don't always go smoothly, and there will be fans who always remember Tommy Joseph, who will probably turn up in the majors in the next few years. He might even rake at first base, and if you were against trading for Carlos Beltran (due to the price of Zack Wheeler), and then you fixated on Joseph because you felt that Brett Pill never got his chance thanks to that other awkward guy (hell, maybe you were on Twitter demanding that the move Nate the Great to first!), this trade will be the perfect storm of bitterness. You're going to flame Hank Schulman for a few weeks, and troll over at McCovey Chronicles, and then you'll probably slump off and start rooting for the Oakland Athletics because they're a prospect bonanza. They collect and horde. Have fun.

And you probably won't read this blog ever again, since I think it was bound to happen. Maybe not Pence for Joseph (and those other guys), but with Buster Posey and Hector Sanchez on the roster, and Joseph and Andrew Susac, one of the prospects was going to get traded. I will take Pence any day over the likes of Shane Victorino (who goes from the once hated Phillies to the F%&#ing Dodgers), or Scott Hairston. Pence is a better player, he'll be around longer, and...the potential for GIFs is probably endless.

While I'm at it, one more thing. If things turn around and the Giants get hot, we're all going to have a good laugh at Panda/Pence batting back-to-back. Opposing pitchers are going to have to throw three feet off the plate if they want to get a pitch past those two. But these two would then be bright lights on a team of guys who can't stop hacking. It's nice to see Marco Scutaro join Posey and Melky Cabrera (and Brandon Belt when he's not slumping) on the small group of Giants with plate discipline.

Preview: Hanley Ramirez

Whoever scheduled a Giants-Dodgers series right before the trade deadline has a real sense of humor. Sure, it was probably a computer, but whenever some mere mortal combed over the printout, he chuckled to himself when he saw that the Dodgers would be in San Francisco, the Phillies in Atlanta, the Red Sox in New York, and the Houston Astros. Definitely laughed at the Astros.

The key to the next three days is to maintain composure, no matter what happens. Recall that the last time the Dodgers came to town, the Giants were three games back and it seemed impossible that they could catch up to first place. Many of us would have been happy taking the series. Instead, the result: 27 scoreless innings. That's probably not going to happen again, but I'd take it if it did. Conversely, the Dodgers probably aren't going to sweep San Francisco, not with Matt Cain and Ryan "Won't Wear Dodger Blue" Vogelsong taking the mound.

In any case, keep your composure, as losing perspective and demanding an invincible right handed power hitter no matter the cost we've got to keep first place and flaming Hank Schulman on Twitter can only lead you to a dark place. 

Especially if you're Brian Sabean, because if you follow that black tunnel you're going to wake up on July 31st and Scott Hairston's going to be standing in right field and Gary Brown is going to be teammates with Zack Wheeler. You don't want that. I don't want that. Gary Brown doesn't want that.

See the calming hand of Hanley Ramirez up there? He's saying to you: "No matter what happens, this series is not about me, and its not about the trade deadline."* Make it so at your own peril.

* In fact, it's probably going to be about Barry Zito, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. Warning: do not combine with fastballs middle in.

Giants Snap Losing Streak, and A Brief Argument Against Home Plate Collisions

(Updated below)

There's nothing like winning the first game back from the all-star break, especially after that awful 1-5 road trip through Washington and Pittsburgh. Sure, the All Star Game was a hoot and all, with the Giants lighting up the scoreboard, but there are plenty of skeptics who will consider the game meaningless. And if your team isn't contenting--then, sure, it is meaningless (zing!).

But I'm sure that the Washington Nationals will appreciate home field advantage when they defeat the Texas Rangers in six this year. Wait a moment! Who typed that? There are so many things wrong with that sentence. Do we really have to watch another World Series with the Rangers? And, of course, the Giants are on their way to the playoffs, so don't even consider it...

Now, where was I? Ah yes, so the Giants snap their two game losing streak, and they did it with style. Madison Bumgarner continued to be Madison Bumgarner, at one point retiring thirteen straight Astros. I know, the Astros are even worse than before--that is, sans Carlos Lee. But if you recall last year--of course you do: after he embarrassed the Giants on August 25th, you were outraged that the Giants gave up Henry Sosa for Jeff Keppinger, see how alternative-universe-y things got?--you can't just expect to automatically defeat wretched teams. You're definitely afraid of what's going to happen tonight when Tim Lincecum takes the mound, but if we could cherry-pick numbers for a moment, Lincecum has 3.99 ERA at home with opposing hitters hitting .227/.322/.330, while opposing pitcher Lucas Harrell's away numbers are 2-5, 6.59 ERA,  with opponents batting .293/.348/.467.

And Buster Posey's home run in the bottom of the first. I missed most of the Barry Bonds era, which overlapped with some of my non-baseball watching peregrinations, so that was the first time I've ever seen a ball land 448 feet out in dead center.

The only blemish was Pablo Sandoval's collision at home plate. It was the first test for Giants fans, who haven't seen, from what I can recall, a Giants runner collide with a catcher since Posey returned. I couldn't think of anything but Posey's collision. I've gone on record that it's time to change, but read Grant Brisbee's more extensive arguments.

I don't really care whether Chris Snyder is cool with it or not, there's no place for collisions in baseball. Ryan Theriot can't tackle José Altuve to avoid a double play, and Alex Rodriguez can't slap the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove on his way down the first base line. The rules can change, catchers can be protected, and run-covetous teams (including ours) will still figure out ways to score runs. You'll see. I can already tell that you're making excuses, but think of whether you'd want to use them in other situations. To wit, your arguments boil down to:

1. Anything that the Giants do is good, even if we're pissed when anything happens to Posey (this is the universality-be-damned approach).
2. The status quo is good (i.e., baseball should never change, which is false).
3. Victim blaming (catcher in the way, he was asking for it, etc.--If you're a decent person, I shouldn't have to explain to you why this argument is fucked up).

See, you don't exactly like where that's going, and you wouldn't use these arguments in the rest of your life. So scoff if you like, and pretend that what happens on the diamond stays on the diamond, but you know that I'm right.

Update (8:30pm):
Alex Pavlovic on Bruce Bochy's response to the home plate collision:

Bochy talked to Posey about the way Chris Snyder blocked the plate last night. It was kind of a refresher course for everything Posey was taught in the spring. [...]

Bochy said he has never had the “no collisions at home” conversation with his position players, even after he was so vocal last year about Posey’s season-ending injury. But he added that he would pull a guy aside if he thought a runner went at the plate the wrong way.

Giving Vent to a Groan

This first game against the Nationals is the kind of thing that makes me wish I had written up something about Ryan Vogelsong's last start.  The part about those two pitches up and in while he was trying to bunt, and his enraged, bat-spiking response. Not many people talked about it, but it sure snapped home-plate umpire Dan Iassogna out of whatever pain he may have felt after being scorched by a foul ball. Or the part about all-star Jay Bruce's leap at the fence...uh...missed jumper, whatever it was that won the game for the Giants. Seriously, he must have been napping in right, and when Pagan hit that fly ball and he turned around and saw people at ground level, outside the fence, he must of thought he was in the parking lot of the Great American Ball Park.

I had even planned to link to this, as a palliative in case the Giants had lost. You can have it now.

So, tonight's game. It was lost, and I watched it all anyway. I'm not sure why. During the rain delay I did some reading--but then I kept watching. Maybe searching for positive signs, such as indications of Gregor Blanco (3-for-5, 2 RBI) breaking out of his slump, or Brandon Crawford (3-for-4, 1 R) getting it together at the plate. 

Oh, and Bryce Harper, with whom (along with Mike Trout) we'd all probably like to eventually compare Gary Brown. All three played, incidentally, for the Scottsdale Scorpions in last year's Arizona Fall League. Brown got off to a slow start this year in Richmond (AA Eastern League), but in his last ten games has put up a .390/.468/.610 slash line to bring his season numbers up to .268/.342/.352.

Ah yes, of course, tonight's game. It all really started to fall apart when Lincecum lobbed that hanging curveball to Jordan Zimmerman, who sent it down the right field line for a double. Danny Espinosa scores.

That curveball. The curve that mantles the vista far and wide while Zimmerman waits until the glowing orb of the moon shine forth--

--O! Mr Dedalus cried, giving vent to a hopeless groan. Shite and onions! That'll do, Ned. Life is too short. 

Fine. Back to reading.